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Free Pick Of The Day Mon. November 9th, 2009 NFL- Denver +3 over Pittsburgh NBA- LA Clippers +2 over N.O. NHL- Chicago -150 over L.A. Kings Ncaa- Fla. Atl. +31 over UNC |
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Market Quotes and charts for futures- Oil, Grains, Metals, Stocks, Currency and more... |
This page was last updated on: November 9, 2009
Betting on sports and casino games is really just like investing in the markets. In other words its all a gamble! Some bets are safer than others. Thats why it should all be looked upon as Speculation. You look at the situation and conditions, then analyze if you have an edge.... and then let the dice fly! You win or lose. One good thing about Sports or Casino betting is that you know the odds exactly, you know the rules and its over in seconds/minutes/hours. Win or lose. Now, the art is in your method or system for making descisions and the secret to continued success is..... Money Management. Everyone can get lucky! But can you repeat it! Getting out when you need to get out, staying in and letting it ride for a while when things are running hot. Easy to say hard to do? Yes, unless you have a way ( system/method) of choosing a side and limiting losses while maximizing gains. |
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Limiting losses is the most important part of your formula/system. It can be as simple as having a percentage or money amount you are willing to lose on a specific investment you may be interested in. For example, you invest $500 in X because you believe you have an edge or you feel it will move in a positive direction. This could be investing in a stock or playing a casino game. Here is a simple method- with $500 you would take a $150 - $250 loss before you pulled out of the investment/game. You realize that things are not going your way, dont throw good money after bad. You regroup and may implement the same play again- but you got out of the one that was going bad..... before you lost it ALL! This really is key. The Vegas Casinos know that. They want you to think you can get it all back quick- if you just keep going your luck has gotta change. Warning- as soon as you start thinking about luck... get out quick. You want to be operating from a plan and under control. OK say things go your way and now your up $200, thats good, but what do you do now! Keep going or take the profit? Most times taking the profit is the right thing to do, but you should at least think about preserving it. At $500 invested and up $200 I would keep going unless I lost another $50 putting me at + 150, then I would get out. If I kept winning and got to $300 I would get out if it went down to $200 and so on until I hit my stop loss or was just real tired and starting to lose focus- if I was in a casino investing. If it was a market investment I would get out if I was worring about it all the time, in other words it was not feeling like it was gonna do what I speculated it would. What your looking for is to win more at each session/investment than you lose on another. In other words if I invest 6 times and loss 3 times and win 3 times I want to make money! How? By limiting your losses and maximizing your wins. Example. #1 lost $150 #2 won $300 #3 lost $150 #4 won $150 #5 lost $150 #6 won $250 + $250 profit As an investment this represents 6 times you invested the $500, as a casino speculation ( gambling ) it represents 6 times buying in to a paticular casino game, also... you may buy into these games at less than $500- just buy in for a little more that your loss amount, in this example it is the low end of the 150-250 loss scale for 500, so 150 plus another 50 equals 200 buy-in. Now your gonna walk with that $50 when you lose the $150. Why? Because it teaches you to walk away from a bad situation with money in your pocket. Now how do you know which way to invest? See the article to the left. |
Which way is it gonna go? Thats the great question isn't it? Well the good thing is it doesn't really matter when it comes to investing or gambling, unless your stuck on only investing or betting one way all the time. Varying the method to suit the situation is important. Varying the amount invested is also needed to take advantage of the conditions. Think about poker. Some hands are worth risking a little more for the big return and some you might just limp by on with a chance of hitting a hand. The poker thought is the big picture- the nuts and bolts of making it work should be just that- nuts and bolts. Written in stone rules and methods. Any game that approaches a 50/50 proposition will behave in certain ways. The odds are 1 in 2 that one of the two sides will win. In a perfect world it would be W L W L W L W L ... etc. Watch and see.. this rarely happens for very long. A good example is the NFL. Look at NFL teams that lose 3 straight against the spread- they tend to win one of their next 3 against the spread. Designing a system around this would be easy. Using a 3 step progression you would look to win one of the next 3 and make a one unit win. Yes the classic double up system. Scary. It actually is scary if you go beyond three levels.. ( 1 2 4 ) ....... 8 ....... 16....... 32. You dont need that !!! But there is value in certain situations to use a 1 2 4 progression. The rule should be NEVER GO BEYOD 4 UNITS IN A DOUBLE UP. You have to think in patterns- WWLLWWLL.... LLLLWLWWWLLLWWLWLL...... WLWLWW LLLLLWWW... OK.. look at this one WLWLWLWL.... whats next, will it continue the pattern or will it break it? From all reasearch I've found you should bet it will break the pattern. After six repeats of a pattern WLWLWL or WWWWWW or LLLLLL the tendency is to change. The point is watch and see- look at what your gonna invest in and see what you want out of it... where you see it going and take advantage of that. I would see in the previous example WLWLWLWL that it has gone 7 times being opposite. I believe this will not continue long so I might use a 3 step double up over the next three results scoring one unit if it hits but losing 7 units if I lost. This is the loss risk I take with the 3 step double up. Or, I might begin betting one unit that the result will be the same as the last one and keep betting that way until I showed a profit. Many ways to take advantage of patterns with bet selection and betting level. NOTE: Above it is mentioned that after six repeats of a pattern the tendency is to change. In reality the change is happening all the time... see how long you have to wait to even see a six straight repeat pattern. They can take a while to show. Mostly its change.. WWW tuns into LLW turns into WLW etc... but recognizing patterns such as WWWLLL WLWLWL is helpful because WWWLLL will rarely be followed by WWWL..... so if we see that pattern we may bet a L ( loss ) will show in the next 3 tries. The other example ....WLWLWL you would NOT expect the next 3 to be WLW which would continue the pattern to nine staight alternations. Investing in financial instruments.. stocks, bonds, futures- oil, corn, gold etc.. or mutual funds and all the other financial games that are offered can be looked at in the same way as casino games. Speculation on what may happen. Financial markets have much more info to digest and overall market conditions and trends contribute to the performance of each investment. This is good and bad. Good- theres alot to look at and try to guess the direction. Bad- theres alot to look at! Overload can cause indecision and inaction. Soon you've seen it ( the market ) do EVERYTHING... so what will it do right now? Its really best to be ready for it to do ANYTHING. Again, patterns can help you see whats been happening and what might happen next. Have a plan of attack and surrender!!! Remember about walking away from the table with some money in your pocket? Money Management is very important to long term success. Knowing the business cycle and where the economy is in it is a very basic way to know whats likely to happen overall in the near future. You could simply look for the best performing mutual fund to put your money in if you feel the economy and markets are headed in the direction where your mutual fund would increase in value. Or, you could get really involved in reading charts and try to pick individual stocks that you feel will give you a good return. Just remember it is you that is pulling the trigger and you can decide to get out just as easy as you got in. Sometimes in troubled economic times when things have been beat down, you can find alot of big name stocks at cheap prices just be carefull to buy them AFTER they stabilize and begin to climb back upward. Watching the chart of such a stock can be benificial. Buying that kind of stock you would be going for about a 20% or 30% gain. Using the same method of protecting your profits you would sell if it began to give back what you had gained according to your profit protection plan. Also, if it began to lose you money right away you would get out before you lost too much... it obviously not doing what you speculated it might. And you survive to fight/invest again. |
EXPERIMENT # 1. Betting Big Underdogs with a Progression betting plan. We will GO AGAINST the Biggest Favorite on the board in Baseball- Must be -190 or bigger favorite. These will payoff around the 2 to 1 range. Bet 1 unit .... if bet is lost go to next, if won = + 2 units bet 1 unit again .... if bet is lost - next, if won = + 1 unit bet 1 1/2 units.. if lost - next - if won = + 1 unit bet 2 1/2 units.. if lost - next - if won = + 1 1/2 units bet 3 1/2 units.. if lost - next - if won = + 1 unit bet 5 1/2 units.. if lost - next - if won = + 1 1/2 units bet 8 units.. if lost - next - if won = + 1 unit continue to bet enough to make a unit or more when we finally hit the underdog win. After the win we stop and start the progression again. I suspect it will not go beyond the 8 unit bet very often. Now lets run a test. 2009 June 20 MLB- Minnesota -210 / Houston +190 .... we take Houston +190 BET 1 Unit on HOUSTON +190 result= WON + 1.9 units WON- Stop and start Progression over. OVERALL PROFIT- + 1.9 units June 21 MLB- No teams qualify.... no bets. June 22 MLB- No teams qualify.... no bets. June 23 MLB- No teams qualify.... no bets, June 24 MLB- No teams qualify.... no bets. June 25 MLB- No teams qualify.... no bets. June 26 MLB- Texas -225 / San Diego +205 .... we take San Diego +205 Bet 1 Unit on SAN DIEGO +205 results- LOST - 1 unit June 27 MLB- No teams qualify.... no bets. June 28 MLB- LA Dodgers -200 / Seattle +180 ... we take Seattle +180 Bet 1 unit on SEATTLE +180 results- WON +1.8 units WON- Stop and start Progression over. Progression profit= + .8 units won. OVERALL PROFIT- + 2.7 units June 29 MLB- Florida -190 / Washington +170 ... we take Washington +170 Bet 1 unit on WASHINGTON +170 results- LOST - 1 unit June 30 MLB ST. Louis -200 / San Fran +180 ... we take San Fran +180 Bet 1 unit on SAN FRAN +180 result-WON +1.8 units WON- Stop and start Progression over. Progression profit= + .8 units won. OVERALL PROFIT= + 3.6 units July 1 MLB- Milwaukee -240 / NY Mets +210 ... we take NY Mets +210 Bet 1 unit on NY METS +210 result- WON + 2.1 units WON- Stop and start Progression over. Progression profit = + 2.1 units won. OVERALL PROFIT= + 5.7 units July 2 MLB NY Yankees -300 / Seattle +240 ... we take Seattle +240 Bet 1 unit on SEATTLE +240 result- WON + 2.4 units WON- Stop and start Progression over. Progression profit = + 2.4 units won. OVERALL PROFIT= +8.1 units July4 MLB Boston -220 / Seattle +220... we take Seattle +220 Bet 1 unit on SEATTLE +220 result- WON + 2.2 units WON- Stop and start Progression over. Progression profit = +2.2 units won OVERALL PROFIT= + 10.2 This experiment lasted about Two Weeks and a profit of OVER TEN UNITS was won. The underdogs were 5-2 over this period, assuring us a great profit. It is more reasonable to expect a lower win ratio than was experienced here. A profit of 4 units would of been a good result. This system was given as an example of how you can take advantage of bet size and odds to maximize your chance of turning a profit. This system takes advantage of odds and changing the size of the bet, as well as the psychology of the underdog versus the big favorite. The senario sometimes being that the favorite takes the game lightly... they are the better team... they are the winners... they got this one easy.... overconfidence. With the underdog you get a team that is not expected to win the game... the pressures off.... and its a chance to prove that they could be a winner too- by beating a good team and winning as a big underdog. This does not mean the Dog will win the game. Most times a big dog will lose the game. Thats why we use progressive betting on an almost 2 to 1 payoff bet. This way we can lose 3, 4, 5 straight games and hit the next and still turn a profit. |
EXPERIMENT #2 Betting Small Home Favs in MLB We will Go With Small Home Favs ( -120 or less ) if they have a Winning Record. These pay off under even odds so we will use a progression of.... 1 1.5 3.5 7.5 repeat 7.5 unit bet until a profit is shown. This one is just a hunch........ good team..... \ at Home....... Favorite.... its a slightly steep progression but betting favorites will do that to a progression. The good thing is it will probably hit the 1.5 and 3.5 bets alot. Not sure about repeating the 7.5 bet until a profit is shown, but we will see! NOTE: If more than one team qualifies go with the team with the best overall record... then if that ties go with the best home record. Also, they have to be the favorite from the opening line. 2009 July 22 No teams qualify.... no bets. July 23 Chicago -119 over Tampa bay Bet 1 unit. WON .... (+ .80 units.) UP . 8 units July 24 Detroit -115 over Chicago Bet 1 unit, WON.... (+ .85 units.) Overall= UP + 1.65 units. July 25 LA Angels -115 over Minnesota Bet 1 unit. WON.... (+ .85 units.) Overall= UP + 2.5 units July 26 No teams quality.... no bets July 27 No teams qualify.... no bets. July 28 Chicago -110 over Houston Bet 1 unit. LOST... [- 1 unit.] Overall= UP + 1.5 units July 29 Tampa Bay - 115 over NY Yankees Bet 1.5 units. LOST... [ - 1.5 units ] Overall= even 0 units July 30 No teams qualify.... no bets. July 31 No teams qualify.... no bets. Aug 1 Atlanta -120 over Los Angeles Bet 3.5 units. WON.... ( + 2.8 units ) Overall= UP + 2.8 units Aug 2 No teams qualify.... no bets. Aug 3 No teams qualify.... no bets. Aug 4 Tampa Bay -114 over Boston Bet 1 unit. WON.... ( + .86 units ) Overall= UP +3.66 units Aug 5 No teams qualify... no bets Aug 6 No teams qualify... no bets Aug 7 NY Yankees -118 over Boston Bet 1 unit WON.... ( + .82 units ) Overall= UP +4.48 units Aug 8 Chicago - 116 over Cleveland WON.... ( + .84 units ) Overall= UP +5.32 units Aug 9 NY Yankees -108 over Boston Bet 1 unit WON.... ( + .92 units ) Overall= UP +6.24 units Aug 10 No teams qualify Aug 11 Cleveland -120 over Texas no play NOTE- The Clevland game did not qualify they were not a favorite ... it did win but it did not qualify. Aug 12 No teams qualify Aug 13 No teams qualify Aug 14 Detroit -116 over Kansas City Bet 1 unit WON.... ( + .84 units ) Overall= UP +7.08 units OK... After about 3 weeks this system produced over 7 units of profit. It didn't get a very good workout of the progression bets, because it didn't lose that often. 9-2 total record would of produced a good profit even without the progression bets, but even if the record were more average- say 6-5 or even 5-6 we would of produced around 3 - 5 units profit. even with a losing record ! Thats the power of progression betting. It is something to consider when ever you are speculating. In investing it would be called cost averaging- where you buy more stock as the price goes down, so that, when it begins to rise again you make up your losses quicker. There are alot of techniques between gambling and investing that can be interchanged. And, again, MONEY MANAGEMENT is so important in Speculating. I have a feeling that if you used a Small Away Favorite it would produce a profit also. |